exploring predictive contingencies predicting contingent futures exploring predictive contingencies forecasting critical understanding generating calibrated futures mapping the future assembling calibrated futures calculating accurate contingencies mapping contingent predictions composing precise predictions crowdsourcing calibrated understanding assembling predictive contingencies computing predictive estimations crowdsourcing contingent wisdom

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?

Context

Following the outbreak of COVID-19 in the US in February 2020, a series of international travel restrictions and statewide stay-at-home orders were put in place. The impact on the aviation industry has been severe. According to Conde Nast Traveler:

On April 7, the total amount of U.S. fliers screened by the TSA fell below 100,000 for the first time in the agency’s history. That’s a 95 percent drop compared to the passenger numbers from the same day in 2019, when 2,091,056 people passed through the checkpoints. Experts say the majority of those screened were airline crew members or healthcare workers heading to COVID-19 hot spots.

Some states have begun reopening, but domestic airline executives have warned that their operations may not come back in full force after the pandemic.

These were the domestic passenger Departures Performed numbers for the year of 2019:

  • January 2019 676,190
  • February 2019 615,986
  • March 2019 738,969
  • April 2019 719,238
  • May 2019 751,725
  • June 2019 754,175
  • July 2019 783,588
  • August 2019 783,830
  • September 2019 716,792
  • October 2019 750,827
  • November 2019 703,616
  • December 2019 728,899

Question

When will US domestic passenger air travel return to 80% of pre-COVID-19 volumes?

Resolution

This question resolves as the first time when the total monthly US domestic passenger Departures Performed is at least 80% of that for the same month in 2019, according to US Air Carrier Traffic Statistics.

To pin down a specific day, we will linearly interpolate between the last day of the first month when the air passenger volume meets the threshold and the last day of the prior month. Specifically, let the difference at month be , and let be the last day of the last month with , and let be the last day of the first month with . Then the exact resolution date will be given by

Related Questions

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.