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Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?
TikTok is a Chinese video-sharing social networking service owned by ByteDance, a Beijing-based internet technology company founded in 2012. TikTok has become tremendously popular and has over 1.5 billion downloads and has been the most downloaded app of all time in 2020.
However, TikTok has recently been linked to significant spying and other privacy concerns. This, and other growing concerns of Chinese influence, have made it identified by the US as a potential national security threat. India also recently banned TikTok.
This has made Arpit Gupta, an Assistant Professor of Finance at NYU Stern, predict that the US will also ban Tik Tok by the end of the year. He however hasn't yet put a probability on that statement. Will you?
This question will resolve positive if a credible media report indicates that the US government has taken action with the effect that a typical American will not be able to download the TikTok phone app from the Google Play Store and iOS App Store (at least without some sort of technical circumvention), or use it if it was previously downloaded there.
This question will either close at the end of July or retroactively to three days prior to the announcement if the announcement is earlier than the end of July.
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.
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