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63 comments
164 forecasters

Will the US ban TikTok by the end of the year?

29%chance
29%chance
ResolvedNo
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 29% chance, and it resolved No.
Authors:
PeterWildeford
Opened:Jul 3, 2020
Closes:Jul 31, 2020
Resolved:Jan 1, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 4, 2020
Economy & Business
🏆 2020 Leaderboard
USA Today logo
Is a TikTok sale finally happening? Deal could be reached Oct. 30, Bessent says.
USA Today•Oct 30, 2025
Associated Press logo
White House says deal to put TikTok under US ownership could be finalized in South Korea
Associated Press•Oct 29, 2025
Forbes logo
Treasury Secretary Confirms Deal That Could Lift The TikTok Ban
Forbes•Oct 28, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will TikTok still be available in the United States on December 31, 2025?

Yes, still owned by foreign adversary
59.4%
Yes, non-adversary owner
39.6%
No
1%
106 forecasters

If Trump is elected president in 2024, will AI foundation model reporting requirements remain in place in the US at the end of 2025?

5% chance
80

Will the US restrict access outside the US to some APIs to generative AI before 2026?

1.9% chance
93
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