Will the New York Times end up publishing any articles mentioning Slate Star Codex or Scott Alexander between 2020-07-01 and 2021-07-01?
We already have a Metaculus prediction about if/when such an article is published it will include his full name.
However, that question very much depends on this one, whether they will go ahead with any article in the first place. Since if they are only 1% likely to go ahead then it might be moot whether the name would be included.
It doesn't have to be the currently anticipated article by the currently anticipated NYT author in the currently anticipated topic. Any author's NYT-published article in any topic that mentions either him or his blog is eligible to resolve this question positively.
This question resolves positively if any time between 2020-07-01 00:01 UTC and 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC any article is published on nytimes.com that mentions either "Slate Star Codex", "SlateStarCodex", "slatestarcodex.com", or "Scott Alexander".
Otherwise it resolves negatively at 2021-07-01 00:01 UTC.
And it is clear they are referring to the author of SSC, not any other Scott Alexander.