Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
68
comments
501
forecasters
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
25%
chance
Share
Predict
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
No key factors yet
Add some that might influence this forecast.
Add key factor
Background Info
Histogram
Follow
embed
Authors:
tetraspace
Opened:
Aug 1, 2020
Closes:
Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:
Aug 2, 2020
Geopolitics
News Match
Why is there so much talk about nuclear weapons this week?
CNN
•
Nov 1, 2025
The 9 countries with nuclear weapons as US set to resume testing after 30 years
Independent
•
Oct 31, 2025
Trump's comments on nuclear testing upend decades of US policy. Here's what to know about it
Independent
•
Oct 31, 2025
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
15.4 weapons
(2.1 - 434)
64
forecasters
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
<1 weapons
(<1 - 5.81)
<1 weapons
(<1 - 5.81)
151
forecasters
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%
chance
55
Show More Questions
