Question
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?
Total Forecasters499
Community Prediction
25%
(15% - 40%)
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Authors:
Opened:Aug 1, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 2, 2020
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
15.4
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
1.2
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%
Authors:
Opened:Aug 1, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2050
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2050
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 2, 2020
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050, if at least one offensive detonation occurs?
15.4
How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?
1.2
Will there be at least one fatality in the US from a non-test nuclear detonation by 2050 if a non-test detonation causes a fatality anywhere?
28%