Anthony writes on Trump's re-election chances,
I'd like to meta-predict that no matter how dire things start to look for Trump (if they do), this question will have a floor of ~20%, because predictors will be so psychologically burned by the last election that they will be loathe to go below that.
Will this prediction come true? This question resolves as the minimum credence (in percentage points) of the community prediction while the question is open. The minimum credence can be found by running this short python script,
import json import requests data = json.loads(requests.get("https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1100/").text) credences = [moment['x1']['q2'] for moment in data['community_prediction']['history']] print(min(credences))
As of writing the question, the script prints 25%.