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What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?


Anthony writes on Trump's re-election chances,

I'd like to meta-predict that no matter how dire things start to look for Trump (if they do), this question will have a floor of ~20%, because predictors will be so psychologically burned by the last election that they will be loathe to go below that.

Will this prediction come true? This question resolves as the minimum credence (in percentage points) of the community prediction while the question is open. The minimum credence can be found by running this short python script,

import json
import requests
data = json.loads(requests.get("").text)
credences = [moment['x1']['q2'] for moment in data['community_prediction']['history']]

As of writing the question, the script prints 25%.

Metaculus Itself

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.