Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.

Pending

This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.

Submitted

This essay was submitted and is waiting for review.

What will be the minimum credence Metaculites will give Trump's re-election chances in 2020?

Question

Anthony writes on Trump's re-election chances,

I'd like to meta-predict that no matter how dire things start to look for Trump (if they do), this question will have a floor of ~20%, because predictors will be so psychologically burned by the last election that they will be loathe to go below that.

Will this prediction come true? This question resolves as the minimum credence (in percentage points) of the community prediction while the question is open. The minimum credence can be found by running this short python script,

import json
import requests
data = json.loads(requests.get("https://www.metaculus.com/api2/questions/1100/").text)
credences = [moment['x1']['q2'] for moment in data['community_prediction']['history']]
print(min(credences))

As of writing the question, the script prints 25%.

Categories:
Metaculus Itself

Make a Prediction

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.