Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will US regulations that restrict self-driving trucks be implemented?
Self-driving trucks are advancing quickly toward reality, and both the economic and the environmental arguments in their favor are quite strong. Major tech-industry players, notably Google and Uber, are making rapid progress. The consensus (as of 6/2017) on this currently open Metaculus question predicts that the first driverless cross-USA cargo truck run will occur in December 2018, a time frame better measured in months than in years.
A recent report commissioned by Intel crisply predicts that autonomous driving (by both cars and trucks) will contribute $7 trillion to the economy, but it devolves to vague and euphemistic palliatives when the future prospects for truckers are discussed. For example, the report notes that autonomous vehicles — in displacing human drivers — will, "create opportunities for transportation companies to utilize the `freed' time of drivers to evolve and enhance their role and impact to the organization."
The Trump administration was voted into office on the strength of support from a demographic that would experience proportionally large job losses if fully autonomous self-driving trucks become a reality. There may, therefore, be grass-roots pressure for legislation that keeps humans in the driver's seats. On the other hand, Trump has repeatedly spoken (and acted) in favor of deregulation generally.
By January 2020, will US Federal regulations be implemented that restrict the operation of trucks without a human operator on board?
For positive resolution, regulations (or laws) must be adopted at the federal (rather than state) level that significantly curtail, delay, or prohibit the adoption of autonomous trucking technologies, arguably for reasons that go beyond pure safety considerations. Evidence to this effect would include citing employment in the text or announcement of the regulations, restrictions that appear to have no viable basis in safety considerations, statements by unions or others to the effect that jobs or workers rights are a significant consideration, etc.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.