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    When will the VIX index fall below 20?

    Created by mattvdm on {{qctrl.question.created_time | dateStr}}.

    Question

    The CBOE’s Volatility Index ($VIX), also known as the ‘fear index’, measures expected 30-day volatility in the US stock market.

    VIX represents the expected range of the S&P 500 at a 68% confidence level — a VIX of 20 represents the expectation of annualized price movement in the next 30 days of <20%, equivalent to a 30 day movement of (20% ÷ √12 =) ±5.77%.

    Between 2004 and 2019, the average closing price of the VIX was 18.2. Having opened 2020 at 13.46, it spiked substantially during the COVID sell-off in March, reaching an all-time intraday high of 85.5 on March 18th, then falling to its current value of 28.00. A full series of VIX prices since its 2002 inception is available here. Live-updated chart here.

    The question will resolve on the first date that the closing price of VIX is below 20.0, as per the CBOE's daily updated csv file (or if unavailable, any other report from CBOE). Intraday price movements will not count towards resolution.

    Companion question:

    Categories:
    Finance – markets

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