13 comments
116 forecasters
First commercial crewed spaceflight by September 2018?
20%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 20% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jul 1, 2017
Closes:Feb 1, 2018
Resolved:Sep 8, 2018
Spot Scoring Time:Jul 3, 2017
When will the 1,000th person reach space?
Mar 2034
(19 Aug 2029 - Jan 2041)
Mar 2034
(19 Aug 2029 - Jan 2041)
177 forecasters
When will SpaceX Starship first successfully fly an external customer payload?
07 Aug 2026
(11 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2027)
07 Aug 2026
(11 Jan 2026 - >01 Jan 2027)
60 forecasters
Will the Boeing Starliner Commercial Crew program be canceled before its first operational flight?
41.6% chance
21