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What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?


Stripe, a financial-services company, committed last year to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.

They recently wrote up a summary of their first set of these purchases.

This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.

Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at $775 per ton.

Climeworks uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.

This question asks:

On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?

This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.

If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.

If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.

*As judged by a metaculus admin.

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