# What will be the cost of negative emissions sold by Climeworks in 2030?

Stripe, a financial-services company, committed last year to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop. They recently wrote up a summary of their first set of these purchases. This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose. Stripe has purchased 322.5 tons of negative emissions from Climeworks at$775 per ton.

Climeworks uses renewable geothermal energy and waste heat to capture CO2 directly from the air, concentrate it, and permanently sequester it underground in basaltic rock formations with Carbfix. Their own price target in the long-term is $100-$200 per ton.

On 2030/7/1, what price will Climeworks charge to permanently capture and store one ton of CO2?

This question will resolve as the price per ton, in \$USD charged by Climeworks for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of negative emissions using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.

If Climeworks has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling negative emissions which make use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges.

If neither of the above resolutions are possible, either because Climeworks has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.

*As judged by a metaculus admin.

### Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

#### Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

### Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.