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What will be the cost of carbon storage sold by CarbonCure in 2030?


Stripe, a financial-services company, committed last year to spending at least $1M/year on negative emissions and carbon storage technologies, at any price, with the aim of helping these technologies develop.

They recently wrote up a summary of their first set of these purchases.

This miniseries aims to predict the success of the companies that Stripe chose.

Stripe has purchased 2500 tons of carbon storage from CarbonCure at $100 per ton. Note that unlike two of the other companies in the series, CarbonCure does not capture CO2 directly, it sequesters CO2 which has already been captured by some other method.

CarbonCure sequesters CO2 in concrete by mineralizing it into calcium carbonate (CaCO3). This has the side effect of strengthening the concrete.

This question asks:

On 2030/7/1, what price will CarbonCure charge to permanently store one ton of CO2?

This question will resolve as the price per ton, in $USD charged by CarbonCure for a 1kT purchase, payable immediately, of carbon storage using broadly similar<sup>1</sup> technology to that described above.

If it is not possible to purchase storage alone from CarbonCure, because they now are focused only on combined Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), a Metaculus admin will ask CarbonCure to provide an estimate for the fraction of their CCS price that the storage is responsible for. If no such estimate is provided or publicly available, this question will resolve as the CCS price.

If CarbonCure has merged with or been acquired by a different company, but that company is still selling carbon storage which makes use of broadly similar* technology to that described above, this question resolves as the price that company charges. The CCS exception is dealt with as above.

If none of the above resolutions are possible, either because CarbonCure has switched to a very different negative emissions technology, or because it no longer exists, this question will resolve as ambiguous.

*As judged by a metaculus admin.

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