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Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?

A similar question to this was asked in 2016.

The team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin. However, in 2016, they missed several states -- such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconcin -- ultimately missing the final election outcome.

See for example this writeup on Mashable after his 2012 predictions aced the electoral map.

Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and assign greater than 50% probability to the correct outcome in every state and electoral district?

This will resolve as positive if the final prediction from before the election matches exactly the electoral results post-election for each state. In other words FiveThirtyEight must predict the modal outcome for the election as being the exact real outcome that actually happened. (Maine and Nebraska allow their electoral votes to be split; for these two states, success requires all the districts to be called correctly.) If the site has multiple prediction models showing as of the day before the election, whichever is highlighted as their best pick will be used.


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Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.