Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will FiveThirtyEight ace the 2020 US presidential electoral map?
A similar question to this was asked in 2016.
The fivethirtyeight.com team, lead by Nate Silver, was able to predict exactly the 2012 state-by-state electoral map for the presidential election. In 2008 their prediction missed on only a single state, Indiana, which Obama won by a 0.1% margin. However, in 2016, they missed several states -- such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconcin -- ultimately missing the final election outcome.
See for example this writeup on Mashable after his 2012 predictions aced the electoral map.
Will the 538 model repeat its 2012 success and assign greater than 50% probability to the correct outcome in every state and electoral district?
This will resolve as positive if the final prediction from fivethirtyeight.com before the election matches exactly the electoral results post-election for each state. In other words FiveThirtyEight must predict the modal outcome for the election as being the exact real outcome that actually happened. (Maine and Nebraska allow their electoral votes to be split; for these two states, success requires all the districts to be called correctly.) If the site has multiple prediction models showing as of the day before the election, whichever is highlighted as their best pick will be used.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.