Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Low-mass Doppler-detected planet in 2016?
The catalog of known extrasolar planets is growing rapidly. At last count, NASA's Kepler Mission has generated 4,696 high-quality planet candidates, and thousands more are on the way from NASA's K2 and TESS Missions.
The surge in the planetary census has been almost exclusively driven by transit detections, in which the parent star is observed to undergo a subtle once-per-orbit dimming when a planet passes directly in front of the stellar disk.
Until recently, the Doppler velocity technique was the most productive method for discovering new planets. With the Doppler method, one monitors the shift in the parent star's line-of-sight velocity as it travels around the star-planet center of mass, thus allowing the presence of an unseen planet to be inferred.
The Doppler velocity technique works very well for massive planets that have short-period orbits. When the magnitude of the velocity shift lies below 1 meter per second, however, it becomes very difficult to make secure detections. Recently, a number of high-profile, front-page discoveries have been called into question.
In 2016, will a peer-reviewed paper appear in the literature that announces the detection of a non-transiting extrasolar planet that induces a radial velocity half amplitude for its parent star of less than one meter per second?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.