modeling predictive wisdom crowdsourcing calibrated understanding mapping accurate predictions delivering calibrated estimations mapping predictive understanding mapping the future predicting predictive predictions mapping critical predictions calculating critical insights composing accurate forecasts modeling contingent insights exploring definitive wisdom formulating quantitative wisdom exploring accurate estimations


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

Machine intelligence has been steadily progressing since the invention of the digital computer, but this progress has arguably been accelerating of late, with widespread deployment of machine learning systems and dramatically increased funding of artificial intelligence research.

GPT-3 is a machine learning language model developed and announced by OpenAI in May 2020. It is a 175 billion-parameter model trained on a large corpus of text, and has proven surprisingly capable.

GPT-3 has not definitely not reached intelligence parity with humans, as defined, for example, by this question. But has GPT-3 achieved (text-based) intelligence parity with a human 4th grader?

Assume that prior to 2021, a generalized intelligence test will be administered as follows. A team of three experts will collaboratively craft a set of 20 questions to be put to both GPT-3 and three humans.

The humans will be relatively typical 4th grade (aged 9-10) students with above average grades while not being particularly precocious (but being willing to take a 20-question test) chosen independently of the questioners. The exam will be scored blindly by a disinterested group of three graders, averaged over the three graders.

GPT-3 will be run with settings (chosen below) intended to optimize its performance. Each question will be answered three times by GPT-3, and the scores of the three trials averaged.

Question resolves positively if the total of averaged GPT-3 scores exceeds the total of the averaged human scores on such a test prior to 2021.

Resolution is ambiguous if no such text is administered prior to 2021-01-01.

Some fine print:

  • All questions will be given in text form, advantaging GPT-3.

  • The 20 questions will be chosen to advantage the humans. All topics and question types are fair game, but:

  • This is not a Turing test meant to distinguish GPT-3 from 4th graders, but rather a test of who/what answers questions correctly. That is, questions should be such that both GTP-3 and the 4th graders would be easily and objectively outperformed by, say, human graduate students. Questions will be scored (0-2) as incorrect, partial credit, or correct.

  • Judges will be requested not to be prejudiced one way or another even if they can discern who/what is giving which answers. To help, scoring will be done with the identities of the respondents scrambled for each question (rather than all answers from one respondent scored at once.)

  • GPT-3's questions will be given through a "wrangler" who is experienced with and has access to GPT-3 and can choose settings and "prime" the system using at most 2048 characters of text (determined prior to knowing any of the questions), and supplement each question with up to 32 characters of non-leading text that is the same for each question and chosen in advance. (For example "Teacher: " to form a student-teacher dialogue.)

  • The 4th graders can have as much time as they like to type their replies, but cannot get help or look online for answers, nor use external aids like pencil and paper.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.