94 forecasters

If tested, would GPT-3 demonstrate text-based intelligence parity with human 4th graders?

26%chance

Ambiguous

The community gave this a 26% chance, and it resolved Ambiguous.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Jul 31, 2020

Closes:

Jan 2, 2021

Resolved:

Jan 7, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Aug 1, 2020