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How many charities will Charity Entrepreneurship help launch in 2021?
Charity Entrepreneurship is an organisation which provides training and support to individuals looking to start effective charities. Thirteen people graduated from their 2019 incubation program, who ended up founding six charities, two of which received GiveWell incubation grants. Due to the pandemic, Charity Entrepreneurship's incubation programme has moved online in 2020.
This question asks:
By the end of 2021, how many new charities will have been founded by graduates of Charity Entrepreneurship's incubation program?
Charities founded before the opening of this question are not counted in the total. Resolution will be according to the Charity Entrepreneurship website, and/or credible media reporting.
Metaculus help: Predicting
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.