Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Will Trump (try to) fire Mueller?
The U.S. presidential campaign of Donald J. Trump is currently under investigation by Special Counsel Robert S. Mueller III. Mueller was appointed Special Counsel by Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, in the wake of President Trump's firing of FBI Director James Comey. (Rosenstein's boss, Attorney General James Sesssions, had already recused himself from the investigation.)
President Trump has made clear his displeasure in Mueller's investigation, and in some of the possible directions the investigation may take. Having fired once, will Trump fire again?
This question will resolve as positive iff any of the following events occur by January 1, 2018:
- Trump successfully fires Mueller
- Trump announces that he is firing Mueller, even if it turns out that Trump does not have the authority to fire Mueller directly.
- Trump instructs Rosenstein, Sessions, or one of their successors to fire Mueller - either according to statements by Rosenstein or Sessions, or by credible multiply-sourced reporting.
- Rosenstein, Sessions or one of their successors resigns, and gives as a reason that Trump requested that Mueller be fired.
- Trump fires Rosenstein, or Sessions, or one of their successors, with credible reports indicating that unwillingness to fire Mueller was the triggering event.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.