Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
Successful test of anti-insect Laser fence?
Since 2005, Florida citrus growers have been plagued by a disease affect their trees called citrus greening disease, or huanglongbing. The disease, which has dramatically impacted the state's citrus production, is carried by two species of psyllid, a flying sap-sucking insect.
To protect the groves, the company Intellectual Ventures has developed a technology originally intended to control malaria-carrying mosquitoes - an array of lasers that zap the psyllids out of the air.
Hear me out.
The array is called the Photonic Fence, and uses cameras to identify only the target pest - psyllids in this case. Any psyllid within the laser's 30 m horizontal or 3 m vertical range is subject to a burst of laser light that heats the psyllid up just enough to kill it.
According to the article:
This summer in Florida, the Photonic Fence will initially be tested against psyllids released inside a screen house, an enclosure of fine mesh used to protect trees from pests. After that, and tests to prove it can avoid targeting bees, the device will be used to replace one wall of a screen house and get its first shot at wild psyllids. Makagon wants to then use several devices to make a perimeter around a block of citrus trees.
Will the Photonic Fence prove its effectiveness?
This question will resolve as positive if prior to October 15 2018, a credible news story or corporate press release from Intellectual Ventures or some another entity owning or licensing the rights to this technology states that states that a test, similar to that described above with a single wall open to the outside, and successfully excluded psyllids from the test grove. (If a fraction is reported, it should correspond to more than 90% of psyllids being killed between entry and when they are able to land on a plant, or some comparable level of success – i.e. like US missile defense, and occasional success is helpful but not really what's desired.)
(Edited 11/14/17 to allows another related organization to do the test using IV's IP.)
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.