7 comments
66 forecasters
Microwave disruption of COVID-19 virus particles?
5%chance
ResolvedNo
The community gave this a 5% chance, and it resolved No.
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Aug 15, 2020
Closes:Dec 4, 2021
Resolved:Jan 11, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Aug 17, 2020
How many cluster-randomized trials will be published before 2027 assessing whether far-UVC reduces transmission of airborne pathogens?
4.63 CRT
(2.12 - 9.01)
4.63 CRT
(2.12 - 9.01)
3 forecasters
When will an airborne SARS-CoV-2 virus monitor be commercially available?
20 Jun 2025
(28 Oct 2024 - 06 Mar 2026)
20 Jun 2025
(28 Oct 2024 - 06 Mar 2026)
5 forecasters
Will there be recurring virus-driven lockdowns during the period 2030-2050?
29.9% chance
25