mapping critical understanding mapping accurate insights formulating calibrated estimations crowdsourcing intelligent predictions delivering precise wisdom mapping the future formulating critical futures calculating quantitative forecasts calculating calibrated predictions formulating precise contingencies delivering predictive futures delivering calibrated futures delivering precise contingencies crowdsourcing precise forecasts


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the California drought ease significantly this Winter?

California is in the midst of a severe drought, following several years of well-below-average rain and snowfall.

There is cause for optimism, however. There is currently a band of warm ocean water in the central and east-central Pacific associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation. The associated meteorological conditions favor the tracking of winter storms into California. Indeed, early-season snowpack measurements in the Sierra Nevada are currently running above average. If strong storms materialize as expected during the coming months, California could see significant relief.

The severity of regional drought conditions is tracked and updated weekly by the National Drought Monitor. As of Dec. 31, 2015, 69% of the state’s area is classified as experiencing “extreme” (code D3) or “exceptional” (code D4) drought. The last date at which California was free of such conditions was August 6th, 2013.

On April 15, 2016, will the National Drought Monitor show that California is entirely free of areas experiencing extreme (D3) or exceptional (D4) drought?


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.