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Will the World Series of Poker return to a live in-person format in 2021?
Live in-person poker is a particularly bad match for virus outbreaks. Not only are players typically huddled together in close promimity over tables, but they are constantly touching and then exchanging small plastic rectangles and discs (cards and chips, respectively). There would have to be considerable progress in containtment, treatment, and/or vaccines before a large-scale live-poker tournament event would be safe to hold in the U.S.
The World Series of Poker, after having run tournament events in Las Vegas every summer since 1970, was forced to postpone its 2020 event due to the coronavirus pandemic, and hosted an alternative online-only version.
Will the WSOP return to a live format in 2021?
This question will resolve positively if all of the following conditions are met:
- A live version of the World Series of Poker 2021 is announced on the WSOP.com website.
- A corresponding set of live tournaments are actually held in the United States sometime between June and December 2021. (The events need not be held in Las Vegas itself.)
- As part of the above, a particular live tournament is billed as the "WSOP 2021 Main Event" on WSOP.com website.
- The 2021 Main Event is actually played in the U.S. in 2021, with 500 or more entrants, and is played down to a single winner who is designated the Main Event champion. (Note that some previous versions of the Main Event have had more than 6000 entrants).
This question will resolve negatively if the last day of 2021 passes and one or more of the above conditions have not been met.
Note that this question can still resolve positively if the WSOP organization decides to define WSOP 2021 as a mix of live and online tournaments, as long as the designated "Main Event" is played live.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.