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Will 2018 be the warmest year on record?


Ice cream melts faster than it used to.

In 2016, the average global temperature, according to the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Sciences (GISS) data analysis, was the warmest on record, besting the previous mark which was set in 2015. Earth has something of a streak going -- the last three years have all been global temperature record setters.

There is unambiguous evidence that climate change, driven by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration (as well as other greenhouse gases), is responsible for the relentless upward trend. Nonetheless, stochastic variations do lend a short-term veneer of unpredictability to near-term measurements.

A recently closed Metaculus question that asked whether 2017 will break the global heat record was quite popular -- 327 predictions were registered, with the community of predictors ascribing a median 46% chance of going over the top. Given the interest, it seems reasonable to roll the question out for the coming year:

Will 2018 again set a new record? Or will it fall off the recent record-setting pace?

This will resolve in the positive if the NASA GISS global average temperature for 2018 is published above that of any prior year for which records exist. As a practical matter, this will be either 2016 or (possibly) 2017.

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.