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185
comments
623
forecasters
Will Iran possess a nuclear weapon before 2030?
27%
chance
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Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (9)
Deterrence against israel
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
12 votes
Stockpiles of 60% enriched uranium likely unaffected by strikes
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
20 votes
Enrichment may be primarily for bargaining incentive
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
10 votes
Political will to maintain the threat of strikes
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
7 votes
Fatwa against nuclear weapons
Impact
Decreases Likelihood
Strength
11 votes
The bomb is an attractive deterrent against attacks
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
14 votes
China Needs to keep Iran as a Proxy
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
15 votes
Assumes Iran doesn’t already have 1+ Nukes - which is not what some analysts have been saying since the 1990s.
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
6 votes
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Authors:
rcloud
Opened:
Sep 20, 2020
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:
Sep 21, 2020
Iran-Israel Conflict
Technology
Geopolitics
Politics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
News Match
Satellite Photos Reveal Nuclear Activity in Iran
Newsweek
•
Oct 29, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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