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KBC Fall 2020 : anti-induction

Question

Everybody loves Keynesian Beauty Contests on Metaculus. Let's have another one.

Which value will Metaculus least predict?

At a secret, randomly chosen time on 2020-10-04, an admin* will retroactively close this question to that time, then use Elicit to input the current community pdf$^†$ into the Metaculus prediction UI. Then they will open the current points tab (option "current") and hand pick the value that gives the lowest score to that pdf. This question resolves as this value.

We would like to remind predictors that the use of puppet accounts is prohibited by the Metaculus user agreement.

The close/resolve date is set to 2020-10-04 23:59 for convenience, but the actual time will be chosen randomly using a Random Clock Time Generator and kept secret until resolution.

The admin resolving this question will not predict on it.

The boundaries were randomly generated too. The lower boundary is open, so this question will resolve as <843721001 if this gives the lowest score.

If Elicit is unavailable at close time, the admin will do their best to fit the community prediction with the 5 logistics by hand and resolve as otherwise stated from there.

Notes:

* Probably the author.

$^†$ Actually the best fit Elicit found, using Metaculus' 5 logistic distributions.

Prediction

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.