Metaculus Help: Spread the word
If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.
A major "theft" of cryptocurrency in November 2017?
Despite its being carefully designed for security, piles of hundred of millions of dollars lying around "in the bits" are bound to attract some clever schemes, and there have been a few quite notable thefts/swindles/heists of cryptocurrencies.
Biggest and most famous, probably, was Mt. Gox, in which per Wikipedia,
approximately 850,000 bitcoins belonging to customers and the company were missing and likely stolen, an amount valued at more than $450 million at the time.Although 200,000 bitcoins have since been "found", the reason(s) for the disappearance—theft, fraud, mismanagement, or a combination of these—were initially unclear.
Another major event was the DAO heist. Again per Wikipedia,
users exploited a vulnerability in the DAO code to enable them to siphon off one third of The DAO's funds to a subsidiary account. On 20 July 2016, the Ethereum community decided to hard-fork the Ethereum blockchain to restore virtually all funds to the original contract.
Will there be a significant theft of cryptocurrency during November 2017?
For an event to count as positive resolution it should fulfill the following criteria:
The total amount stolen/swindled/siphoned should must exceed $500,000 in value (using the cost of the currency at the time of theft.)
The event should be generally described in articles as a "theft" or similar words. (Rather than, for example, a "scam" or a "swindle.") Thus for example a "pump and run" scheme would not count, but impersonating an exchange or company server to redirect funds would.
The theft itself, in terms of coin transfer, should take place between Nov. 1 and Nov. 30, inclusive.
Resolution is still positive if the funds are "recovered" in some way, e.g. as in Ethereum's hard fork.
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.
Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.
This question is not yet open for predictions.
Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.