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Passing the torch: Will a Bitcoin's dollar value exceed the Nasdaq Index value?
The NASDAQ stock market, which opened for trading in 1971, was the world's first electronic stock market. Its well known benchmark, the NASDAQ Composite Index, is a market capitalization-weighted measure of the value of all the domestic and internationally based common stocks listed on the NASDAQ market. The index includes large-cap names such as Apple, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft.
Companies on the NASDAQ index were the darlings of the late-90s dot-com bubble, and drove the index to an intra-day high print of 5132.52 on March 10, 2000. The bubble burst shortly thereafter, and the index dipped to a low of 1108.49 on October 10th 2002.
Recently, the NASDAQ has reachieved its dot-com era highs. As of this writing, after the market close of September 1, 2017, it stands at 6,435.33.
The ongoing tech stock run-up, however, has been dwarfed by the success of bitcoin, which is is currently priced at $4833.05, having risen from roughly $1000 at the start of 2017.
Prior to December 1, 2017, will the numerical value of the dollar to bitcoin rate exceed the numerical value of the Nasdaq Composite Index?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.