Your submission is now in Draft mode.

Once it's ready, please submit your draft for review by our team of Community Moderators. Thank you!

Your essay is now in Draft mode

Once you submit your essay, it will be available to judges for review and you can no longer edit it. Please make sure to review eligibility criteria before submitting. Thank you!

Submit Essay

Once you submit your essay, you can no longer edit it.


This content now needs to be approved by community moderators.


This essay was submitted and is waiting for review by judges.

Will Trump freely leave the White House?


As of November 8th, 2020 Donald Trump has still not conceded the election, despite multiple news networks (including his favorite, Fox News) projecting his opponent Joe Biden to be the next president of the United States. While his court cases are pending, ProPublica has noted,

It’s not likely the recount requests or ballot challenges, which are common in the wake of close elections, will make a difference in the outcome. “Recounts rarely change the vote totals very much,” said University of Kentucky law professor Joshua Douglas, and the same is true of challenges to the validity of ballots.

Some have considered the possibility that a disgraced Trump will be dragged out of the White House on inaguration day. Scott Aaronson writes,

Now that Trump has gone this far in shattering all the norms of succession, part of me wants to see him go the rest of the way … to being physically dragged out of the Oval Office by Secret Service agents on January 20, in pathetic and humiliating footage that would define how future generations remembered him.

Will Trump freely leave the White House?

This question resolves positively if at least 3 credible media sources all independently report evidence that Trump left the White House willingly, and free from force or the threat of force on or before inauguration day 2021, with no evidence of intention to return (except as a potential guest, or if he wins the presidency again in some future election). Otherwise, it resolves negatively.

A threat of force is constituted by an order by a legitimate authority, such as a Secret Service agent or a judge. In other words, at least one person who has legal authority to forcefully order Trump to leave the White House must order/force him to leave for this question to resolve negatively. A pre-emptive reminder of his official scheduled departure at 12 PM January 20th 2021 does not count as an order.

In the case of a dispute between credible sources, or the absence of clear evidence, this question resolves ambiguously.

Politics – US

Make a Prediction


Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Current points depend on your prediction, the community's prediction, and the result. Your total earned points are averaged over the lifetime of the question, so predict early to get as many points as possible! See the FAQ.

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site