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Where will Amazon locate its second headquarters?
Amazon recently announced plans to build "HQ2", a second headquarters in North America. As detailed in a number of news articles, cities across the continent are scrambling to promote themselves as the ideal location; the selected region will absorb a $5 billion investment and see the creation of up to 50,000 new jobs over the next two decades. It is widely expected that the winning locale will offer significant tax incentives, but a range of tangible and intangible factors will likely play into the final selection.
A recent article profiles the, ahem, ingratiation efforts that a number of small cities have been putting forth to become the hosts. Will extra efforts by relatively small cities win out over the resources available to larger cities? We'll ask:
Will the new Amazon HQ be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area?
Resolution is positive if the official Amazon announcement places the HQ in a city of population of < 3M in its metropolitan area, per the wikipedia list of 2016 census estimates. (This excluded the largest 18 cities).
(Edit 10/15 to change to metro areas and 3M population, 18 cities above the line.)
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The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
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When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.