Question

When will 100M people receive a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine candidate that has demonstrated an efficacy rate >75% in a n>500 RCT?

Resolved:18 Apr 2021

58 comments58

Total Forecasters69

Community Prediction

23 Mar 2021

(05 Mar 2021 - 15 Apr 2021)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>30 Dec 2022
community	05 Mar 2021	23 Mar 2021	15 Apr 2021	0.7%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	05 Mar 2021	—
median	23 Mar 2021	—
upper 75%	15 Apr 2021	—
Upper bound
>30 Dec 2022	0.7%	—

What was the final result?18 Apr 2021

Community Peer Score

3.0

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Nov 19, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 21, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

23 Oct 2028

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

Authors:

ethulin

Opened:

Nov 19, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2022

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2022

Spot Scoring Time:

Nov 21, 2020

Health & Pandemics

2020-2021 Leaderboard

In what year will an HIV vaccine demonstrating at least 50% efficacy in Phase III clinical trials receive regulatory approval (e.g., from the FDA or EMA) for widespread use?

Jan 2035

When will a vaccine for HIV be administered to 10 million people?

23 Oct 2028

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%