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The End of NAFTA?

The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between Canada, Mexico, and the United States has been in force since January 1, 1994. Under the terms of the treaty, many previously-existing tariffs and other obstacles to the free movement of goods and services between the three member nations were curtailed or eliminated. Although the consensus amongst economists is that the treaty has proved beneficial to the average North American citizen, evidence suggests it has nevertheless had a strong negative effect on the livelihood of a small minority of workers, especially those in the American manufacturing sector, and is tied in with the rise of a populist backlash in the US.

During his election campaign last year, US President Trump made numerous promises to renegotiate the terms of NAFTA as part of a broadly successful attempt to appeal to blue-collar voters. Following up on these promises, the Trump administration recently entered into renegotiation talks with the other two NAFTA member states. However, Trump's proposed terms have been met with consistent opprobrium from both of his negotiating partners. This has led some to suggest that Trump is putting forward untenable demands at the negotiating table in a deliberate attempt to sabotage the talks and thus provide a convenient excuse to scrap NAFTA altogether. Pressure to renegotiate or withdraw from NAFTA has also been growing from the left end of the political spectrum; former presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders was vocal in his dislike of the current terms of the treaty during the 2016 Democratic Party presidential primary campaign.

We hence ask:

will the NAFTA treaty be dissolved before the beginning of 2025?

This question also resolves as positive if any of the three NAFTA member nations formally announce withdrawal from the treaty before January 1, 2025, as per a reputable source. Renegotiation of the terms of the NAFTA treaty does not count as a positive resolution.


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