Question

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

4

Total Forecasters35

Community Prediction

48.5%

(43% - 60%)

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50%

community: 48.5%

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Dec 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2020

Nuclear Technology & Risks

The treaty meant to control nuclear risks is under strain 80 years after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

The Conversation•Aug 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Dec 1, 2020

Closes:

Jan 1, 2060

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2101

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 3, 2020

Nuclear Technology & Risks

The treaty meant to control nuclear risks is under strain 80 years after the US bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki

The Conversation•Aug 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

On January 1, 2040, what proportion of United Nations members will have ratified the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?