Questions
Tournaments
Services
News
Questions
Tournaments
Questions
Questions
More
Log in
Sign Up
a
/
文
Log in
Sign Up
32
comments
124
forecasters
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
40%
chance
Share
Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (1)
When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
Comments
Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
Key Factors
Background Info
Follow
embed
Authors:
nagolinc
Opened:
Dec 18, 2020
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:
Dec 19, 2020
Space
News Match
China set to launch Shenzhou 21 mission, carrying 3 taikonauts - and 4 mice - to replace space station crew
CBS
•
Oct 31, 2025
China says it’s on track to land astronauts on the moon by 2030 ahead of space station mission
Associated Press
•
Oct 30, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon?
28 Jul 2029
(09 Feb 2028 - Aug 2031)
28 Jul 2029
(09 Feb 2028 - Aug 2031)
97
forecasters
When will China first successfully land people on Mars?
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
Jul 2046
(Mar 2040 - Oct 2055)
34
forecasters
How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?
5.96 spacecraft
(5.09 - 6.59)
5.96 spacecraft
(5.09 - 6.59)
93
forecasters
Show More Questions
