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32 comments
124 forecasters

Will China land the next person on the Moon?

40%chance
5 pp this week
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
nagolinc
Opened:Dec 18, 2020
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 19, 2020
Economy & Business
Technology
Geopolitics
Space
Guardian logo
Nasa blocks Chinese nationals from working on its space programs
Guardian•Sep 11, 2025
Independent logo
Nasa bars Chinese citizens from its facilities amid heated space race
Independent•Sep 11, 2025
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will NASA next land astronauts on the Moon?

20 Jun 2029
(28 Nov 2027 - Aug 2031)
20 Jun 2029
(28 Nov 2027 - Aug 2031)
97 forecasters

When will China first successfully land people on Mars?

Jan 2048
(Oct 2041 - Mar 2057)
Jan 2048
(Oct 2041 - Mar 2057)
33 forecasters

How many spacecraft will land on the moon from 2022 through 2025?

5.92 spacecraft
(4.82 - 7.22)
5.92 spacecraft
(4.82 - 7.22)
74 forecasters
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