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34
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132
forecasters
Will China land the next person on the Moon?
50%
chance
10 points
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Predict
Top Key Factors
View all (4)
US lunar program setbacks increase China's chances
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
China making strides in lunar landing efforts
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
US Starship program too ambitious for timeline
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
When will China first successfully launch a Long March 10 rocket (need for the moon mission)?
Impact
Increases Likelihood
Strength
0 vote
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Timeline
In the News
Key Factors
Question Info
Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
Resolution Criteria
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embed
Authors:
nagolinc
Opened:
Dec 18, 2020
Closes:
Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:
Jan 1, 2031
Spot Scoring Time:
Dec 19, 2020
Space
News Match
US Going Back to the Moon in 2026—Sean Duffy Explains Why
Newsweek
•
Nov 8, 2025
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
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