Question

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on MiniImageNet be, on 2021-06-14, in accuracy?

Resolved:84.81

16 comments16

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction

84.3

(83.1 - 86)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>90
community	83.05	84.33	85.97	2.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	83.05	—
median	84.33	—
upper 75%	85.97	—
Upper bound
>90	2.2%	—

What was the final result?84.81

Community Baseline Score

10.9

Community Peer Score

27.8

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Dec 13, 2020

Closes:

Feb 13, 2021

Resolves:

Nov 17, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 15, 2020

Forecasting AI Progress

AI Technical Benchmarks

Forecasting AI Progress: Maximum Likelihood Round

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

2020-2021 Leaderboard

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91.9

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

94.2

What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?

91.1