Question
When will 1bn people have been vaccinated with any vaccine candidate(s) that have demonstrated an efficacy rate >60% in a n>500 RCT?
Resolved:AmbiguousTotal Forecasters50
Community Prediction
03 Aug 2021
(16 Jun 2021 - 28 Sep 2021)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Quartiles | community | My Prediction |
| lower 25% | 16 Jun 2021 | — |
| median | 03 Aug 2021 | — |
| upper 75% | 28 Sep 2021 | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30 Dec 2023 | 0.8% | — |
What was the final result?Ambiguous
Authors:
Opened:Dec 14, 2020
Closes:Jun 1, 2021
Resolves:Jun 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 16, 2020
Authors:
Opened:Dec 14, 2020
Closes:Jun 1, 2021
Resolves:Jun 1, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 16, 2020