assembling intelligent wisdom assembling calibrated understanding delivering probable futures composing contingent forecasts modeling critical insights mapping the future generating definitive wisdom composing precise understanding modeling probable predictions composing calibrated forecasts formulating predictive forecasts calculating precise predictions exploring definitive predictions predicting contingent understanding

Question

Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the UK's Conservative government fall by the end of 2018?

One of the 50 predictions made by Fortune magazine in November 2017 began as follows: "A snowballing sexual harassment scandal in Parliament and divisions over Brexit will coalesce into a force strong enough to bring down Theresa May’s government. The Labour Party’s Jeremy Corbyn will become U.K. Prime Minister and will try to complete Brexit negotiations with the EU".

That's rather specific, but the core of the prediction is clear: Theresa May's government will not survive to the end of 2018, and a quite different government will succeed it. Is that right?

This question will resolve positive if, at some point no later than the end of 2018, the United Kingdom has a Prime Minister who is not a member of the Conservative Party.

It will resolve negative if at the end of 2018 the UK's Prime Minister is a member of the Conservative Party, and if between now and then the UK has not had a Prime Minister who isn't.

It will resolve ambiguous in other cases.

Notes on the resolution conditions: for positive resolution the PM needn't be Jeremy Corbyn, nor need it be a member of the Labour Party. The question will even resolve positive if Theresa May remains in power but leaves the Conservative Party. For negative resolution the PM needn't still be Theresa May, and there can be PM-less gaps if e.g. there is a general election between now and the end of 2018.

{{qctrl.predictionString()}}

Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.