201 forecasters

Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?

95%chance

ResolvedYes

The community gave this a 95% chance, and it resolved Yes.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:

Opened:

Dec 27, 2020

Closes:

Jun 29, 2021

Resolved:

Nov 21, 2021

Spot Scoring Time:

Dec 28, 2020