53 comments
201 forecasters
Will a single novel SARS-CoV-2 variant that is at least 30% more transmissible than preexisting variants infect 10M worldwide before mid-2021?
95%chance
ResolvedYes
The community gave this a 95% chance, and it resolved Yes.
Authors:
Opened:Dec 27, 2020
Closes:Jun 29, 2021
Resolved:Nov 21, 2021
Spot Scoring Time:Dec 28, 2020
By five years after AGI, will an engineered pandemic have infected one billion people?
3% chance
54
How many named variants of SARS-COV-2 in its first 10 years?
18 variants
(15.3 - 23.4)
18 variants
(15.3 - 23.4)
18 forecasters
Will the WHO declare an avian influenza virus in humans a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2030?
40% chance
65