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782 forecasters

Will the USA enter a second civil war before 2031?

3%chance

Top Key Factors

Authors:

Opened:

Jan 19, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2031

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 2, 2031

Spot Scoring Time:

Jan 19, 2021

Polarizing political events are leading Americans to increasingly call for a national divorce

The Conversation•Oct 30, 2025

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