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35 forecasters

What will the state-of-the-art performance on semantic segmentation on Cityscapes be at 2022-01-14 in mean IoU in percent (MIoU%)?

community
83.7
result
84.4
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Jan 14, 2021
Closes:Mar 13, 2021
Resolved:Mar 22, 2022
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 16, 2021
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Technical Benchmarks
Forecasting AI Progress: Hill Climbing Round
Artificial Intelligence
2021 Leaderboard

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

December 14, 2024
91.9
December 14, 2026
93.6
78 forecasters

What will be the best score by an AI on the full Humanity's Last Exam (HLE) before 2026?

60.5%
(51.7 - 71.7)
60.5%
(51.7 - 71.7)
47 forecasters

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

20 Jan 2026
(22 Aug 2025 - 07 Nov 2026)
20 Jan 2026
(22 Aug 2025 - 07 Nov 2026)
16 forecasters
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