63 comments
339 forecasters
Will there be a major nuclear accident before 2030?
10%chance
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Jan 27, 2021
Closes:Jan 1, 2030
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2030
Spot Scoring Time:Jan 28, 2021
If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?
21% chance
21
What percentage of global primary energy consumption will be produced by Nuclear Power in 2040?
6.79%
(3.93 - 10.9)
6.79%
(3.93 - 10.9)
24 forecasters
Will the world remain "normal" through 2030, according to specified criteria?
70% chance
126