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Value of the S&P 500 on March 1, 2018
The situation got a little volatile out there in the markets during early February, 2018. On Monday, 2/5, the venerable Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced its largest point drop in history, and fell more than 4%. The Cboe VIX index, which measures market expectations of near-term volatility as summarized by S&P 500 stock index option prices, shot up to 37, after spending all of January at values close to 10. Action in the secuities markets was complemented by large declines in the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies.
Clearly, with the S&P 500 index now standing near 2,700 and effectively unchanged year-to-date, it would be handy to know what will happen next... So we ask: At the close of US equity trading on March 1, 2018, what will be the value of the S&P 500 index, as measured by the last traded price of the E-mini near-month future (ESH2018) prior to 4PM EST?
Metaculus help: Predicting
Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.
The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available. With tachyons you'll even be able to go back in time and backdate your prediction to maximize your points.
The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.
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Metaculus help: Community Stats
Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.
When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.