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Astral Codex Ten mentions this Question


Following his public re-entry to the web, blogger Scott Alexander has started a routine series of posts he calls "Metaculus Monday". He's taken the first two of these to review Metaculus on the near future of COVID-19, and longer-term futures of Artificial Intelligence. Perhaps a future post will mention this question!

Will this question be mentioned in an Astral Codex Ten Post in 2021?

This question resolves positively if either:

  • the title or question text of this question is mentioned
  • the URL of this question is included the text of an Astral Codex Ten post.

A substack comment will not suffice for a positive resolution, even if that comment is authored by Scott Alexander.

If the question title or text is present but obscured (such as being incorrectly transcribed), this is sufficient to resolve positively.

It does not need to be a "Metaculus Monday" post: any post on Astral Codex Ten in 2021 may include positively-resolving content.

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Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

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Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

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