Question

What will the state-of-the-art performance on one-shot image classification on miniImageNet be, on 2023-02-14 in accuracy, amongst models not trained on extra data?

Resolved:86.11

6 comments6

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction

89.3

(86.4 - >91)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>91
community	86.37	89.27	>91	31.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	86.37	—
median	89.27	—
upper 75%	>91	—
Upper bound
>91	31.4%	—

What was the final result?86.11

Community Baseline Score

-12.4

Community Peer Score

21.0

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks

Opened:

Feb 14, 2021

Closes:

Apr 14, 2021

Resolves:

Feb 15, 2023

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 16, 2021

Forecasting AI Progress

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Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

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91.9

What will be state-of-the-art accuracy on the Massive Multitask dataset on the following dates?

94.2

What will be state-of-the-art performance on the MATH dataset on the following dates?

91.1