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2 comments
31 forecasters

What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?

community
62.8
result
65.4
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
MetaculusOutlooks
Opened:Feb 14, 2021
Closes:Apr 14, 2021
Resolved:Feb 15, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 16, 2021
Forecasting AI Progress
AI Technical Benchmarks
Forecasting AI Progress: Deep Learning Round
Artificial Intelligence
🏆 2021-2025 Leaderboard

What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?

December 14, 2024
91.9
December 14, 2026
93.7
78 forecasters

When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?

15 Feb 2026
(10 Nov 2025 - 24 Sep 2026)
15 Feb 2026
(10 Nov 2025 - 24 Sep 2026)
18 forecasters

In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?

2024
87.7
2025
93
2026
98.2
1 other
21 forecasters
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