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31 forecasters
What will the state-of-the-art object detection performance on COCO be, on 2023-02-14 in box average precision (box AP) amongst all models?
Forecast Timeline
Authors:
Opened:Feb 14, 2021
Closes:Apr 14, 2021
Resolved:Feb 15, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Feb 16, 2021
What will the be the state-of-the-art performance on image classification on ImageNet in top-1 accuracy on the following dates?
78 forecasters
When will an AI system achieve a score of at least 85% on the Abstraction and Reasoning Corpus (ARC) benchmark?
15 Feb 2026
(10 Nov 2025 - 24 Sep 2026)
15 Feb 2026
(10 Nov 2025 - 24 Sep 2026)
18 forecasters
In the following years, what will be the highest LLM scores on the GPQA Diamond benchmark?
21 forecasters