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Will the ICO industry still be growing in May 2018?

(note: experimental question)

Cryptocurrency initial coin offerings (ICOs) have become increasingly popular in 2016 and 2017, growing by a factor of 100 during 2017 with about $3B raised in total in 2017's 4th quarter. This is still relatively small compared to ~$20B in 3rd quarter venture capital raises in 2017, but the proportion is rapidly rising.

However, cryptocurrencies hit a bit of a wall in mid-December 2017 and have been declining or stable between then and late February. Along with participation, utility, and investment, it's clear that a significant component of coin purchasing is speculation that the coins will increase in value because...there is speculation that the coins will increase in value because...

So one might imagine that in a flat or declining coin market ICOs are going to have a tough time. The question one would like to answer if one were contemplating an ICO would be something like:

On May 1 will the ICO space still be growing in overall size, and stable in success likelihood?

(Here, "success likelihood" is something like expectation value of capital raised for a fixed quality of project.)

The attentive Metaculus user will note that this question is far less specific and well-posed than usual. This is by intent. The question will be resolved in the following manner. The question will remain open until its resolution time. Then:

  • If at the resolution time the community prediction probability is < 10% or > 90%, the question will resolve negatively or positively, respectively.

  • Otherwise, it will be resolved by the personal, unquestioned discretion of the question's author.

The intent (along with crypto-insight) is to experiment with a new idea about consensus question resolution, in which a question might close (differently from this one), but remain open for predictions about the resolution. This might either be neat, or perhaps create in infinite unstable meta-regress; we'll see and experiment.


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Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

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