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4th COVID wave in US

Question

The US has to-date experience 3 waves of COVID: first in the Spring of 2020, second in the late Summer of 2020, and third in the Winter of 2020-2021. These appear as 3 clear peaks in any graph displaying daily reported cases in the US over the past year. See one such graph from FT, another from NYT, another from CDC.


Will the US experience a 4th wave of COVID before June 1, 2021?

We define a "4th wave" as satisfying both of these conditions:

  1. 7-day moving average of daily reported COVID cases in the US experiences a trough to peak increase of 50% or more.
  2. the magnitude of the peak in the 7-day moving average of COVID cases in the US is at least 30k.

According to the criteria above, the following examples would qualify as "4th waves":

  • trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 45k or greater
  • trough of 20k followed by peak of 30k or greater
  • trough of 10k followed by peak of 30k or greater

The following examples would not:

  • trough of 30k in 7-day moving average followed by peak of 40k
  • trough of 20k followed by peak of 25k
  • trough of 10k followed by peak of 25k

Resolves (retroactively if needed) to "yes" on the first date for which both of the above conditions are met according to the CDC.

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