computing definitive predictions exploring predictive predictions forecasting contingent forecasts computing intelligent insights crowdsourcing precise forecasts mapping the future generating definitive predictions crowdsourcing intelligent insights composing predictive contingencies generating definitive futures generating accurate insights assembling calibrated futures computing quantitative futures generating accurate contingencies


Metaculus Help: Spread the word

If you like Metaculus, tell your friends! Share this question via Facebook, Twitter, or Reddit.

Will the cost of sequencing a human genome fall below $500 by mid 2016?

The cost of sequencing a human genome has been falling at a rate considerably faster than Moore's law since the first genome was sequenced in 2001, according to the NIH.

This cost reduction has, however, occurred in fits and starts, with periods of plateau punctuated by significant cost reductions.

Will the cost plateau for several years at approximately $1000 per genome, or fall to below $500 USD by June 30, 2016?

The question resolves affirmative if there is an entry for June or earlier in the table provided by the National Human Genome Research Institute putting the cost below $500, and resolve negatively if the table has an entry of for July 2016 or later with a cost exceeding $500.


Metaculus help: Predicting

Predictions are the heart of Metaculus. Predicting is how you contribute to the wisdom of the crowd, and how you earn points and build up your personal Metaculus track record.

The basics of predicting are very simple: move the slider to best match the likelihood of the outcome, and click predict. You can predict as often as you want, and you're encouraged to change your mind when new information becomes available.

The displayed score is split into current points and total points. Current points show how much your prediction is worth now, whereas total points show the combined worth of all of your predictions over the lifetime of the question. The scoring details are available on the FAQ.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. All of your predictions came after the resolution, so you did not gain (or lose) any points for it.

Note: this question resolved before its original close time. You earned points up until the question resolution, but not afterwards.

This question is not yet open for predictions.

Thanks for predicting!

Your prediction has been recorded anonymously.

Want to track your predictions, earn points, and hone your forecasting skills? Create an account today!

Track your predictions
Continue exploring the site

Community Stats

Metaculus help: Community Stats

Use the community stats to get a better sense of the community consensus (or lack thereof) for this question. Sometimes people have wildly different ideas about the likely outcomes, and sometimes people are in close agreement. There are even times when the community seems very certain of uncertainty, like when everyone agrees that event is only 50% likely to happen.

When you make a prediction, check the community stats to see where you land. If your prediction is an outlier, might there be something you're overlooking that others have seen? Or do you have special insight that others are lacking? Either way, it might be a good idea to join the discussion in the comments.

Embed this question

You can use the below code snippet to embed this question on your own webpage. Feel free to change the height and width to suit your needs.