Question
How many pigs will be culled because of an infectious disease outbreak, in the largest such occurrence, between 2021 and 2023?
Resolved:231kTotal Forecasters51
Community Prediction
848k
(376k - 2.15M)
Make a Prediction
CDF
| Lower bound | community | My Prediction |
| <5000 | 1.2% | — |
| Quartiles | ||
| lower 25% | 376.4k | — |
| median | 848.4k | — |
| upper 75% | 2.147M | — |
| Upper bound | ||
| >30M | 5.1% | — |
What was the final result?231k
Community Peer Score
2.3
Community Baseline Score
13.1
Authors:
Opened:Apr 22, 2021
Closes:Apr 22, 2022
Resolves:Mar 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 24, 2021
How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?
51.4M
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Apr 2035
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%
Authors:
Opened:Apr 22, 2021
Closes:Apr 22, 2022
Resolves:Mar 1, 2023
Spot Scoring Time:Apr 24, 2021
How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?
51.4M
When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?
Apr 2035
Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?
66%